MEMR sets 2026 mining revenue target below 2025 take as output cuts loom

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) has set a 2026 non-tax revenue (PNBP) target of Rp 134 trillion ($8.6 billion) from its mineral and coal sector, below revenue realised last year but above the government’s 2025 target.

PNBP from the mineral and coal sector reached Rp 138.37 trillion in 2025, exceeding the government’s target of Rp 124.7 trillion, data from the MEMR showed.

Rising prices for commodities such as tin, nickel and gold are expected to help support state revenue this year, said Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at the ministry.

However, the revenue outlook comes as the government plans to reduce production quotas for several key commodities under its annual work plan and budget (RKAB) approvals.

Nickel ore production is projected to fall to around 250–260 million tonnes in 2026 from a 2025 target of 364–379 million tonnes, while coal output is expected to decline to about 600 million tonnes this year from a target range of 750–790 million tonnes last year.

Despite the cuts, output of some commodities, including tin and gold, is expected to increase. “Hopefully, the PNBP target will be achieved,” Tri said on Monday.

Read also : MEMR optimistic 2025 mineral, coal non-tax revenue target will be achieved

The finance ministry has also begun implementing export duties on coal and gold under a mineral and coal export levy scheme to boost state revenue. The government is targeting annual revenues of between Rp 1.5 trillion and Rp 6 trillion from mineral export duties.

Coal export levies will be applied retroactively, based on price thresholds and coal types, with targeted revenues of Rp 24 trillion to Rp 25 trillion.

Separately, MEMR’s Director General of Law Enforcement, Rilke Jeffri Huwae, said stronger enforcement against illegal mining could also help lift state revenue, noting that illegal mining activity is not included in PNBP calculations.

The ministry is authorised to auction confiscated stockpiles from illegal mining operations that have been designated as state-controlled assets, with proceeds counted as non-tax revenue, he added.

Industry players have warned that lower output could weigh on state revenue. Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Executive Director Gita Mahyarani said non-tax revenue realisation depends on multiple variables, including commodity prices, production volumes and policy certainty.

“Reducing coal production to around 600 million tonnes from 790 million tonnes logically poses a risk to state revenue,” she said.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak