Moody's affirms Golden Energy And Resources' B1 ratings; outlook stable

(Singapore, March 25, 2021) -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the B1 corporate family rating (CFR) of Golden Energy And Resources Ltd (GEAR). At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the B1 rating on the senior secured bond issued by GEAR.

The outlook remains stable.

"The rating affirmation reflects the solid operating performance of GEAR's Indonesian thermal coal mining subsidiary despite challenging conditions, and its improving business profile with growing exposure to metallurgical coal and gold in Australia," says Maisam Hasnain, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

"GEAR's B1 ratings also incorporate our expectation that the company will maintain prudent financial policies, particularly with respect to its growth and diversification strategy," adds Hasnain, also Moody's Lead Analyst for GEAR.

RATINGS RATIONALE

GEAR's credit profile continues to be supported by rising production and stable profitability at its 67% owned subsidiary, PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS). Despite challenging operating conditions including a considerable decline in thermal coal prices, GEMS increased production and cut costs to grow adjusted EBITDA to around $150 million in 2020, from around $140 million in 2019.

Moody's expects GEMS' coal production to continue increasing over the next few years, subject to the receipt of higher production quotas from the Indonesian government each year. GEMS also has a long reserve life of around 31 years based on 33.5 million tons of coal produced in 2020.

GEAR's investments in Australia will provide geographic and commodity diversification, and help improve its business profile. These include GEAR's investment in metallurgical coal via its effective 60% stake in Stanmore Coal, and gold via its 50-50 joint venture in Ravenswood gold mine with private equity firm EMR Capital.

Nonetheless, Moody's estimates these businesses are unlikely to pay meaningful dividends over the next 12-18 months as they undertake large capital spending to expand operations.

As a result, GEAR's credit profile will remain constrained by its dependence on cash dividends from GEMS to service its debt. Moody's expects GEAR to maintain interest coverage from dividends received of around 2.6x--3.9x over the next two years, up from around 2.3x in 2020 and 1.6x in 2019.

These projections assume that GEAR will continue to maintain at least a 62.5% ownership stake in GEMS, pending its planned 4.5% stake sale in the Indonesian coal miner. The minority stake sale will help GEMS comply with the minimum free float requirements to remain listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange.

While GEMS and its subsidiaries account for most of GEAR's earnings and cash flow, GEMS is not a subsidiary guarantor of GEAR's US dollar notes. As a result, noteholders' claims in a distressed situation are subordinate to liabilities at GEMS and its operating subsidiaries. This subordination risk is reflected in GEAR's B1 CFR.

Moody's expects GEAR to maintain good liquidity at the holding company level, with internal cash sources sufficient to meet its planned uses over the next 12 months, including up to an additional AUD75 million ($57 million) equity investment in Ravenswood to support its growth.

"While not our base case, prolonged funding support from GEAR to Stanmore or Ravenswood will weaken GEAR's holding company liquidity, and would likely offset the positive credit implications we anticipate from these investments," adds Hasnain.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that GEAR will continue to develop and grow its coal and gold mine operations, while maintaining prudent operating and financial policies.

An upgrade is unlikely over the next 12 months, given the large capital spending requirements and execution risk associated with GEAR's growth and diversification plans, GEAR's cash flow concentration and its ownership structure.

Nevertheless, the rating could be upgraded over time if GEAR (1) continues to increase its scale, (2) generates steady dividends from all its investments, (3) is not required to provide additional funding to support these businesses, and (4) maintains debt serviceability at the holding company level such that its interest coverage from dividend receipts exceeds 3.0x — excluding the interest reserve account — on a sustained basis.

Conversely, GEAR's rating could be downgraded as a result of (1) an inability to execute its current growth and diversification plans; (2) aggressive financial policies, including continued debt-funded investments; (3) weakening industry fundamentals or a higher cash usage at GEMS, including higher-than-expected capital spending, which reduces the cash flow available for paying dividends to GEAR; or (4) any signs of increased related-party transactions including continued funding support rendered to its subsidiary and joint venture investments.

Specific indicators that Moody's would consider for a downgrade include interest coverage at GEAR on a standalone basis falling below 1.5x or consolidated adjusted debt/EBITDA of above 3.0x.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Mining published in September 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1089739. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Golden Energy And Resources Ltd (GEAR) is an energy and resources company with investments in coal and gold. Its primary asset is its 67% stake in PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, an Indonesian thermal coal producer with coal mines located in Kalimantan and Sumatra. GEAR also owns a 60% effective stake in Australian metallurgical coal producer Stanmore Coal, and a 50% joint venture stake in Australian gold producer Ravenswood Gold Mine.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.  (ends)