OPEC output down 480,000 bpd in November: Survey

Total OPEC crude production fell 480,000 barrels per day to 29.82 million barrels per day (mil b/d) in November from 30.3-mil b/d in October as pipeline flow disruptions sent Iraqi exports falling by an average 400,000 b/d over the month and output declined slightly in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed December 6.

Excluding Iraq, the ten members with quotas pumped an average 28.02-mil b/d, the survey showed. OPEC has been steadily ramping up its production this year alongside soaring oil prices, and the November estimates mark the first drop in combined output in several months.

"OPEC has delivered on what the world needed: it put more oil on to the market," said John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. "Coming down from levels considered excessive is always harder to do than moving production up, so with the heaviest demand quarter -- the fourth -- almost behind us, and prices slumping, the member countries face a big challenge in getting to more manageable production levels. That's good news for consumers. The drop in Iraqi production, however, shows that the entire world supply/demand balance, already drawn extremely tight, is at risk of serious disruptions in that country."

Apart from Iraq, whose output fell by 400,000 b/d, from 2.2-mil b/d in October to 1.8-mil b/d in November, three other countries--Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE--reduced output. Saudi output eased back to 9.5-mil b/d from October's 9.55-mil b/d while Nigerian and UAE output edged down by 20,000 b/d each. Algerian output rose by 10,000 b/d to 1.28-mil b/d. All other countries maintained production at October levels.

Only Indonesia, Iran and Venezuela produced within their official quotas. Indonesian output has been declining, while Venezuela's output has still not recovered from the effects of a two-month oil strike in the winter of 2002-2003. Iran's official quota rose to 3.964-mil b/d at the beginning of November but Tehran's actual output, having averaged 3.98-mil b/d for several months, fell to 3.95-mil b/d in October and remained at that level in November. The bulk of OPEC's incremental production has been of the heavy sour variety such as that produced by Iran and Saudi Arabia, and both these countries have spoken of the increasing difficulty in placing these barrels.

OPEC production could be set to fall further if OPEC's December 10 talks in Cairo result in an agreement to curb actual output while leaving the official ceiling and quotas unchanged, as some ministers -- notably Iran's Bijan Zanganeh -- are now urging.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has yet to show its hand definitively. Speaking in London a week ago, oil minister Ali Naimi said the market was balanced, although he said supply was running slightly ahead of demand. (*)

Country	Nov 04	Oct 04	Sep 04	Aug 04	Jul 04	Quota-Jul 1	Quota-Nov 1
Algeria	1.280	1.270	1.260	1.260	1.250	0.830	0.862
Indonesia	0.950	0.950	0.950	0.950	0.960	1.347	1.399
Iran	3.950	3.950	3.980	3.980	3.980	3.817	3.964
Iraq	1.800	2.200	2.100	1.780	1.950	N/A	N/A
Kuwait	2.420	2.420	2.380	2.380	2.350	2.087	2.167
Libya	1.610	1.610	1.610	1.610	1.590	1.392	1.446
Nigeria	2.380	2.400	2.380	2.400	2.400	2.142	2.224
Qatar	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.790	0.780	0.674	0.700
Saudi Arabia	9.500	9.550	9.580	9.500	9.400	8.450	8.775
UAE	2.480	2.500	2.500	2.450	2.390	2.269	2.356
Venezuela	2.650	2.650	2.650	2.650	2.620	2.992	3.107
Total	29.820	30.300	30.190	29.750	29.670	N/A	N/A
OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq)	28.020	28.100	28.090	27.970	27.720	26.000	27.000