OPEC output up 110,000 barrels per day in October: Survey

OPEC crude production rose 110,000 barrels per day to 30.3 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in October from 30.19-mmbpd in September, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed November 9. Iraq, whose output rose to 2.2 mmbpd in October from 2.1 mmbpd in September, accounted for almost all of the increase.

Excluding Iraq, the ten members nominally bound by quotas pumped an average 28.1 mmbpd in October, just 10,000 bpd higher than September's 28.09 mmbpd, the survey showed.

"If Iraq is taken out of the equation, the supply volumes for the rest of OPEC have barely changed over the course of the last month," said John Kingston, global director if oil for Platts. "This may well suggest that OPEC doesn't have much left to pump in the short term. However, the buildup of supplies in the market, which is obvious to anyone in the industry, may give consumers some breathing room, and more supplies from OPEC might not be desperately needed, as they seemed to be just a few months ago."

"The big question continues to surround not crude, but heating oil, and whether supplies are adequate should we have a cold winter," Kingston said.

"Continued tightness in heating oil inventories remains a concern."

Algeria, Kuwait and Nigeria boosted output by 10,000 bpd, 40,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd respectively, while Iranian and Saudi production fell by 30,000 bpd each.

Kuwaiti oil minister Sheikh Ahmad Fahed al-Sabah in early October offered oil markets an extra 200,000 bpd of crude with the imminent re-commissioning of a crude gathering center. But GC-15, destroyed in a 2001 explosion and whose new design capacity is 300,000 bpd, has yet to come on stream, and Kuwaiti sources have said the reopening could be delayed to the end of the year.

Indonesia, Libya, Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela maintained output at September levels.

OPEC has encouraged its members to increase production well beyond official quotas alongside this year's skyrocketing price levels. At the same time, it has taken steps to increase quotas towards-but not all the way to-actual output levels.

The latest survey leaves the OPEC-10 pumping 2.1 mmbpd in excess of their current 26 mmbpd ceiling. It also leaves them already pumping more than a million bpd above their new 27 mmbpd ceiling which came into effect at the beginning of November.

Many OPEC members are producing close to their maximum capacity limits, which are mostly considerably higher than their official quotas. Indonesia and Venezuela were the only members to produce within their official quotas in October. Indonesia's output has been declining but the country hopes to boost it next year with the commissioning of new production. Venezuela's output has not fully recovered from the impact of a two-month strike nearly two years ago. (*)

Country-by-country breakdown of production with figures in mmbpd:
Country	Oct 04	Sep 04	Aug 04	Jul 04	Quota Aug	Quota Nov
Algeria	1.270	1.260	1.260	1.250	0.830	0.862
Indonesia	0.950	0.950	0.950	0.960	1.347	1.399
Iran	3.950	3.980	3.980	3.980	3.817	3.964
Iraq	2.200	2.100	1.780	1.950	N/A	N/A
Kuwait	2.420	2.380	2.380	2.350	2.087	2.167
Libya	1.610	1.610	1.610	1.590	1.392	1.446
Nigeria	2.400	2.380	2.400	2.400	2.142	2.224
Qatar	0.800	0.800	0.790	0.780	0.674	0.700
Saudi Arabia	9.550	9.580	9.500	9.400	8.450	8.775
UAE	2.500	2.500	2.450	2.390	2.269	2.356
Venezuela	2.650	2.650	2.650	2.620	2.992	3.107
Total	30.300	30.190	29.750	29.670	N/A	N/A
OPEC 10 (excluding IRAQ)	28.100	28.090	27.970	27.720	26.000	27.000