Global coal exports fall for third straight week as subdued market fundamentals persist

Global seaborne coal exports declined further for the third consecutive week by around 10% w-o-w to 14 million tonnes (mnt) in week 03 of 2026 (10-16 January) from 15.5 mnt in week 02 (03-09 January), according to BigMint's vessel line-up data. The decline in week 03 extended the early-year downtrend, keeping global volumes close to multi-week lows.

The weekly drop was driven by sharp pullbacks from Australia, the US, and Colombia, which outweighed modest gains from Indonesia, South Africa, and Canada. Volumes remained close to recent lows, underscoring the continued post-holiday slowdown and weak underlying demand conditions across key importing regions.

The week 03 performance reflected persistently subdued buying interest from major Asian markets, particularly India and China, alongside weak freight market sentiment that discouraged exporters from accelerating long-haul shipments. With fresh cargo enquiries limited and chartering activity cautious, exporters continued to prioritise controlled shipment programmes over volume expansion. Although port operations across major origins remained broadly stable, the absence of demand urgency and unfavourable freight economics reinforced the weekly decline in global coal exports.

Country-wise trends

Australian coal shipments slide further

Australia's coal exports declined 15.7% w-o-w to 5.35 mnt in week 03 from 6.35 mnt in week 02, extending the post-year-end correction. The drop was driven by reduced cargo stem issuance and persistently weak buying interest from major Asian consumers, as comfortable inventories and soft downstream margins continued to curb procurement appetite.

Shipment activity was led by Newcastle (2.78 mnt), followed by Gladstone (1.31 mnt), Abbot Point (0.55 mnt), and Hay Point (0.37 mnt), reflecting moderated but steady operational throughput across key east coast terminals. On the supply side, Glencore led shipments at 0.55 mnt, followed by BHP at 0.37 mnt, underscoring the supply-managed export environment.

On the demand front, Japan remained the largest destination at 1.92 mnt, followed by China at 0.69 mnt and South Korea at 0.52 mnt. The week 03 slowdown reinforced the demand-led nature of Australian exports, with exporters unwilling to push volumes amid weak freights, muted spot demand, and ongoing logistical uncertainties.

Australia's export performance was further challenged by supply chain disruptions in Queensland, where heavy rainfall and flooding continued to affect mining operations and limit cargo availability, pushing premium coking coal prices to multi-month highs and creating port congestion as vessels queued for loading.

Indonesian shipments rebound modestly

Indonesia's coal exports rose 5.4% w-o-w to 5.46 mnt in week 03 from 5.19 mnt in week 02, marking a mild recovery after the sharp pullback earlier in January. The increase was largely supported by the execution of previously scheduled cargoes rather than a meaningful improvement in spot demand.

Shipment activity remained concentrated at key Kalimantan loading hubs, led by Taboneo (1.39 mnt), followed by Bunati (0.79 mnt) and Samarinda (0.68 mnt), reflecting steady but moderated operational throughput. Despite stable operations, exporters showed limited urgency to push additional volumes amid weak freight economics and cautious chartering sentiment.

On the demand side, China emerged as the largest destination at 1.25 mnt, followed by India at 1.09 mnt, while flows into Southeast Asia remained steady. Although shipments edged higher on the week, overall buying interest stayed selective. The export backdrop was further complicated by emerging policy shifts in Indonesia's coal sector, including planned production cuts and export duties aimed at supporting prices amid softer demand from China and India, contributing to caution among suppliers and adding uncertainty to export volumes.

 

South African exports edge higher

South Africa's coal exports increased 10.7% w-o-w to 1.12 mnt in week 03 from 1.01 mnt in the previous week, supported by scheduled cargo execution from Richards Bay (1.12 mnt). The rebound was operational in nature, reflecting shipment timing rather than an improvement in underlying demand.

On the demand side, India remained the leading destination with imports of 0.30 mnt, highlighting continued reliance on South Asian demand. However, overall buying interest stayed measured amid soft freight sentiment and subdued power sector import appetite.

Despite stable terminal operations and available supply, limited follow-through demand continued to cap export volumes below potential, keeping South African coal shipments largely schedule-driven and vulnerable to further weekly volatility. Sources noted that thermal coal export volumes from South Africa in 2026 will largely depend on the performance of Transnet Freight Rail, with logistics reliability shaping exporters' ability to maintain consistent shipments amid ongoing demand weakness.

Colombia shipments retreat again

Colombia's coal exports declined 37.4% w-o-w to 0.41 mnt in week 03 from 0.66 mnt in week 02, reversing the previous week's rebound. The pullback reflected the completion of earlier scheduled cargoes and weak incremental demand from Atlantic Basin buyers.

 

Export activity remained concentrated at Puerto Nuevo (0.13 mnt) and Puerto Bolivar (0.12 mnt), while shipment momentum weakened amid subdued European and Mediterranean demand. On the supply side, Prodeco Group led shipments at 0.18 mnt, followed by Cerrejon Mines at 0.12 mnt, underscoring the shipment-specific nature of weekly volumes.

The sharp decline highlighted the fragile and timing-driven nature of Colombia's recent export performance, with no clear signs of a sustained recovery as weak demand and limited cargo flexibility continued to cap export momentum.

The export outlook was also pressured by continued structural weakness in Atlantic Basin demand, with European thermal coal imports expected to decline further in 2026 amid a renewable energy transition, adding to headwinds for Colombia's coal shipments.

US coal exports plunge

US coal exports fell sharply by 60% w-o-w to 0.6 mnt in week 03 from 1.5 mnt in week 02, marking the steepest weekly decline among major exporters. The drop reflected the absence of large scheduled cargoes during the week and muted spot demand from key destinations.

Export activity remained limited across major load ports, led by Baltimore (0.24 mnt), followed by Mobile (0.16 mnt) and Norfolk (0.16 mnt), as exporters showed little urgency to push volumes amid weak global import demand and unfavourable freight economics. On the demand side, the Netherlands emerged as the largest destination at 0.16 mnt, followed by Germany and India at 0.08 mnt each.

Despite stable logistics, subdued chartering interest and thin cargo books continued to weigh heavily on shipment momentum, keeping US coal exports under pressure. Sources also pointed to weak industrial demand and softer coal volumes reported by major US rail operators, reflecting the challenging export environment and further pressuring the movement of US coal to key load ports.

Canadian shipments rise to multi-week high

Canada's coal exports increased 24.2% w-o-w to a seven-week high of 1.02 mnt in week 03 from 0.82 mnt in week 02, supported by stronger execution of planned cargoes from west coast terminals. Shipment activity was led by Roberts Bank (0.63 mnt), followed by Vancouver (0.23 mnt) and Prince Rupert (0.16 mnt), reflecting stable port operations.

On the supply side, Elk Valley Resources emerged as the leading shipper at 0.23 mnt, underscoring the schedule-driven nature of exports during the week. South Korea remained the largest destination at 0.53 mnt, followed by Japan at 0.25 mnt, anchoring export demand. Despite the weekly rise, exports remained largely schedule-driven, with limited spot market support and cautious demand visibility from northeast Asia.

Recent diplomatic developments between Canada and China, including agreements to lower trade barriers and enhance market access, could provide renewed momentum for Canadian energy and metallurgical coal exports into Asia, offering additional support amid seasonal and demand-side headwinds.

Soft freights, weak demand weigh on coal exports

Dry bulk coal freight markets into India remained under sustained pressure during the week, as ample vessel availability and sparse cargo enquiries continued to overshadow any supportive cues. Rising bunker costs further squeezed shipowners' margins, while weaker paper market signals and a sliding Baltic index reinforced bearish sentiment. With limited fixing activity across major origins and cautious chartering interest, freight economics remained unattractive for long-haul exports, discouraging exporters from pushing additional volumes and reinforcing a demand-led and controlled shipment environment.

The weak freight backdrop, combined with muted downstream demand in India and comfortable inventories, directly weighed on shipment momentum from Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia. As a result, exporters showed little urgency to accelerate loadings, keeping volumes tightly managed and contributing to the overall softness in global coal exports during week 03.

Outlook

Global coal exports are expected to remain soft in the near term, with shipment momentum dependent on the pace of demand recovery across key Asian and Atlantic Basin markets and the direction of freight markets. Australian volumes are likely to stay under pressure amid weather-related disruptions and weak buying interest, while Indonesian and South African exports are expected to remain largely schedule-driven amid cautious chartering sentiment and logistics constraints. US and Colombian shipments are likely to stay constrained by weak Atlantic demand and thin cargo books.

Freight markets into India are expected to remain weak as ample vessel availability, limited cargo enquiries, and cautious chartering sentiment continue to dominate fundamentals. In the absence of a meaningful pick-up in downstream demand or tightening of tonnage supply, exporters are likely to maintain controlled shipment programmes, keeping global coal trade cautious and range-bound in the near term.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak