IEA flags expanding coal project pipeline despite climate risks

The global pipeline of export-oriented coal mining projects has expanded, driven largely by new data and continued investment in metallurgical coal, even as nearly all coal production remains unabated and highly emissions-intensive, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest report.

According to the Paris-based agency, forthcoming coal projects tracked in its database now total 493 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of capacity, up 63 Mtpa from its previous assessment. The increase reflects improved project visibility — particularly in Indonesia — rather than a surge in new developments.

Projects that have secured key approvals and permits account for most of the growth. While the capacity of less-advanced projects declined to 210 Mtpa following cancellations and legal setbacks, several developments moved into more-advanced stages, lifting the advanced project pipeline by a net 101 Mtpa. Seven new coal projects became operational in 2025, adding 26 Mtpa of capacity.

Australia dominates the global coal project pipeline, accounting for about 56% of total capacity, followed by Russia and Indonesia. The IEA cautioned that figures for some countries remain uncertain due to limited transparency.

Met coal drives investment

Metallurgical coal projects continue to attract stronger investor interest than thermal coal, reflecting the steel sector’s ongoing reliance on coal-based blast furnace technology. Around two-thirds of the more-advanced global pipeline is focused on met coal, although many projects will also produce thermal coal.

Australia remains the world’s largest hub for new export-oriented coal developments, with 44 projects at various stages. Several mine extensions and new projects have advanced following environmental approvals, while one project — the Carborough Downs Extension — began operations in 2025. However, low thermal coal prices, tightening environmental scrutiny and court rulings on emissions impacts have delayed or halted several thermal coal developments.

Read also: Global coal demand hit record high in 2025, but set to ease by 2030 – IEA

Russia is continuing to reorient coal exports toward Asian markets, particularly China and India, amid Western sanctions. Investment has focused on rail and port infrastructure in the Far East to support met coal projects, including the Elga Expansion, which adds 25 Mtpa of capacity. Despite financial and logistical constraints, several Russian projects progressed to more-advanced stages in 2025.

Indonesia sees growing activity

In Indonesia, the IEA identified at least 14 coal projects with a combined capacity of around 62 Mtpa, a sharp increase from last year’s estimate. The agency noted that project tracking remains challenging, as many developments only become visible once construction or production begins.

Several mines are expanding or entering construction, including Adaro Minerals’ Maruwai expansion and Geo Energy’s plan to lift output at the Triaryani mine to 25 Mtpa. Infrastructure development — including haul roads, river ports and transshipment facilities — continues to underpin production growth, while state miner PT Bukit Asam is accelerating rail and coal-handling facilities in South Sumatra.

Coal largely unabated

Despite incremental progress in emissions abatement, the IEA said coal remains the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and the largest source of energy-related CO₂ emissions. Coal combustion generated about 15.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ in 2024, accounting for more than 40% of global energy-related emissions.

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) deployment at coal facilities remains limited. As of October 2025, operational CO₂ capture capacity at coal-using facilities stood at roughly 10 Mtpa — just 0.06% of coal-related emissions. Most capacity is concentrated in North America and China, with China commissioning the world’s largest coal-based carbon capture project in 2025.

While announced CCUS projects could add up to 51 Mtpa of capture capacity by 2030, the IEA warned that most remain at early development stages. Without large-scale deployment of CCUS, the agency said, coal’s role in a low-carbon energy system will remain severely constrained.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak