IEA releases Oil Market Report for Aug 2003
Monday, August 11 2003 - 10:44 AM WIB
HIGHLIGHTS The forecast of global oil demand growth for 2003 has been raised by 100,000 barrels per day (BPD), to 1.11 million BPD, reflecting China?s quicker-than-expected recovery from the effects of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. Demand growth for 2004 is unchanged at 1.05 million BPD. The IEA annual review of non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) oil statistics has raised baseline 2001 non-OECD demand by 260,000 BPD. Most of the increase derives from Iran and India. With a higher non-OECD baseline, global demand in 2003 and 2004 is now projected at 78.4 MBPD and 79.4 MBPD respectively. World oil supply increased by 916,000 BPD in July to 78.64 MBPD. Non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) production rose by 688,000 BDP as North Sea output recovered. OPEC crude supply was up 155,000 BPD. Iraqi late-July production exceeded 1 MBPD but uncertainty over future output led OPEC on 31 July to retain its 25.4 MBPD production target. OECD industry total oil stocks closed June at 2515 million barrels, up 24 million barrels from May, but still 129 million barrels below 2002. Forward demand cover was unchanged over the second quarter at 52 days. Preliminary figures indicate that crude stocks failed to re-build over the quarter. Gains in the main products in the second quarter averaged just over 500,000 BPD. Crude oil prices rallied at the end of July, the OPEC basket having already spent much of the month near the top of the target price range. Prices continue to be supported by low stocks, stronger economic growth, a pick-up in US gasoline demand and the uncertainty over Iraqi supplies ahead of an anticipated seasonal rise in demand. (end of release)
Editor?s note: First published in 1983, the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report has firmly established itself as the definitive information source on the supply and demand of world oil. The IEA Oil Market Report is the only regular short-term oil industry analysis based on information obtained from the IEA's extensive network of contacts with governments and industry.